Simulation of Demographic Change in Palestinian Territories
نویسندگان
چکیده
Mortality, birth rates and retirement play a major role in demographic changes. In most cases, mortality rates decreased in the past century without noticeable decrease in fertility rates, this leads to a significant increase in population growth. In many poor countries like Palestinian territories the number of births has fallen and the life expectancy increased. In this article we concentrate on measuring, analyzing and extrapolating the age structure in Palestine a few decades ago into future. A Fortran program has been designed and used for the simulation and analysis of our statistical data. This study of demographic change in Palestine has shown that Palestinians will have in future problems as the strongest age cohorts are the above-60-year olds. We therefore recommend the increase of both the retirement age and women employment. Introduction During the last two centuries in peaceful rich countries, people lived on average longer and longer, while during the last few decades the number of children born per women during her lifetime has sunken below the replacement rate of slightly above two. Also in many poor countries the birth rate has decreased and the life expectancy increased [1]. Mortality, birth rates and retirement have an important effect in demographic changes[2]. Often, mortality rates decreased in the past century and there is no remarkable decrease in fertility rates, which leads to a significant increase in population growth. A decrease in the life expectancy is rather rare such as Russian males and some African countries.
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